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Author Topic: Commodity Futures Daily Setup  (Read 6547 times)

PRH

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Re: Commodity Futures Daily Setup
« Reply #45 on: February 12, 2016, 06:36:06 PM »
Update - Feb 12, 2016

The ES, NQ and YM futures have reached and bounced off of support with the potential of a rally. Based on the daily chart, we see the completion of a 5-wave down sequence into a major DP support level, then a rally today with a potential eventual target into the DP resistance off the previous Wave 4 (~1960 in the ES). Of course, if the equities sell off again next week and break the previous low, this scenario is moot.

This may an opportunity to sell put spreads or to engage in other limited risk trading vehicles.

If time permits we will comment later on the crazy week with fireworks in Gold, Yen and interest rate futures.

prh

Disclaimer: for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk. Trading futures and options entails risk.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2016, 08:14:33 PM by PRH »

PRH

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Re: Commodity Futures Daily Setup
« Reply #46 on: February 17, 2016, 03:06:49 PM »
Update - Feb 17, 2016

The interest rate futures, in particular the Eurodollar Time Deposit (ED or GE) futures had a great setup that just concluded with a 16.8 R profit.  These vehicles tend to trend well.

Gold traded from DP support to DP resistance.

The equity indices are climbing out of support as anticipated. Even though Crude oil got a bounce, the trend is still down and we expect it to continue. Today's option expiration (crude) may temporarily continue to distort the market.

Never a dull moment.

 :)

prh

Disclaimer: for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk. Trading futures and options entails risk.

PRH

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Re: Commodity Futures Daily Setup
« Reply #47 on: February 18, 2016, 03:05:30 AM »
Update - Feb 17, 2016 - evening

Crude oil option expiration is over. The trend is still down - potential sell setup in the 4h chart of April Crude Oil (and March CL as well, but March is expiring soon). It may not trigger as the ABC formation did not reach the typical Wave C target ( it may not have to reach it anyway).
When looking at an ABC, I compare it to the waves of the ocean at the shores at high tide, coming and going but eventually retreating (from high tide) or advancing (from low tide). The art is to recognize the pattern of the waves, get in sync with the waves, or stay out altogether.

:)

prh

Disclaimer: for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk. Trading futures and options entails risk.

PRH

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  • Posts: 84
Re: Commodity Futures Daily Setup
« Reply #48 on: February 19, 2016, 12:08:24 AM »
Update - Feb 18, 2016 - evening

Crude oil was following a perfect Elliott wave sequence and MTP scenario on the hourly chart (CLJ6 chart attached): a 5-wave sequence followed by a decline to the DP off the previous Wave 4, then another 5-wave sequence with a subsequent decline again into the DP off the previous Wave 4.  The chart also displays the DP levels measured from the start of wave 1 of each sequence. This would place a potential price target at 30 (basis April Crude) and 27.50-28.00 as further potential target. The bias is to the downside.

Equity futures (NQ, ES, YM) bounced off the support of one week ago as anticipated. Now the YM is closing in on the DP resistance (Daily Chart) and showed a TS3 sell on the daily chart (ABC formation on 4-hour chart). The bias is to the downside after 3 strong up-days. 

Range trading is what we expect for the weeks to come - investors do not like it, traders love it.

:)

prh

Disclaimer: for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk. Trading futures and options entails risk.

PRH

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Re: Commodity Futures Daily Setup
« Reply #49 on: February 26, 2016, 05:27:32 PM »
Update - Feb 26, 2016

March Lumber is in a trade from the short side on the daily chart and 4-h chart. Slow and steady decline. FND is on Tuesday.

April Crude Oil (hourly) displays another 5-wave sequence. DP support is derived from the Wave 4 and start of Wave 1 points.

:)

prh

Disclaimer: for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk. Trading futures and options entails risk.

PRH

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Re: Commodity Futures Daily Setup
« Reply #50 on: March 03, 2016, 12:27:41 AM »
Update - March 2, 2016

Short March Lumber was covered at 254 (short from 262) for 1.1R profit. There was a TS2 buy on the 4-h chart. Now long May Lumber from 254 (see 4-h chart).

:)

prh

Disclaimer: for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk. Trading futures and options entails risk.

PRH

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  • Posts: 84
Re: Commodity Futures Daily Setup
« Reply #51 on: March 03, 2016, 06:52:13 PM »
Update - March 3, 2016

May Lumber TS2 buy from yesterday (4-h chart) - out at limit up at 264.60 - judging from the no-limit March Lumber (up 16.00 now) and the buy pool in May Lumber (now 219), tomorrow May lumber is most likely 5-6 $ higher. Nevertheless, we banked 3.2 R profit.

:)

prh

Disclaimer: for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk. Trading futures and options entails risk

PRH

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Re: Commodity Futures Daily Setup
« Reply #52 on: March 03, 2016, 06:55:52 PM »
Correction - correct graph is now attached for May Lumber - and 4.6R profit.

PRH

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Re: Commodity Futures Daily Setup
« Reply #53 on: August 31, 2016, 08:43:32 PM »
August 31, 2016
A very simple trade evolved in the daily chart for Dec Wheat from Aug 25 - 31 (today):
A break of the triple bottom and DP triggered a short trade. While wheat collapsed, EW intermediate pointed to a typical W3 target of 390 and maximal W3 target of 363.   We covered at the typical W3 at 390 for a nice 4.5R profit over 5 days.
Note that we are using 0.75% risk on futures which also limits the potential gains yet this approach is more likely to produce a smooth uptrending equity curve.
:)
prh

PRH

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Re: Commodity Futures Daily Setup
« Reply #54 on: October 01, 2016, 07:37:32 PM »
Sep 30 2016

Here are two trades in which we are positioned:

1. Long Nov Crude Oil (Mini contract = 1/2 size = QMX6), well underway to the minimum Wave C target.

2. Short Dec NQ - The equities market seemed toppy recently so on Friday we shorted the NQ from the DP off the previous high (hourly chart).  The longer-term (daily) chart is consistent with this trade. Even though it appears foggy, this could be a holy grail - type trade. The previous high was on Sep 22 at 4892.25. It is off to a good start, so time will tell how this will proceed...

The same patterns occurred in the ES and YM, however these markets did not make it to the DP, therefore the ES and YM might be even weaker.

 :)

PRH

PRH

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Re: Commodity Futures Daily Setup
« Reply #55 on: December 07, 2016, 01:22:10 PM »
Dec 7, 2016

Over the last few days, on the daily chart, March Sugar reached an important DP support level. A potential low-risk entry to the long side is visible.

prh